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2012: Worse than 2008!

Martin D. Weiss Ph.D. | Monday, December 19, 2011 at 7:30 am

Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.

If you think 2008 was a bad year, wait till you see 2012!

The world’s largest banks have far less capital, the world’s largest governments have far less bailout power, and each is pulling the other into an abyss.

Yet, BOTH bankers AND government officials seem mostly oblivious to the dire realities, sleepwalking through daily life as if nothing had changed.

Burying the Truth

Over 100 years ago, novelist Émile Zola put it this way: “If you silence the truth and bury it underground, it will grow and gather such explosive power that the day it bursts through it will blow up everything in its way.”

This is a key reason why economies crumble, markets crash and entire empires wind up in the junkyard of history.

This is why investors lose fortunes.

This why lives are destroyed.

It’s why life-changing opportunities are left by the wayside.

And it’s why my mission is to give you a direct, immediate pathway to the truth no matter how lonely that endeavor may be.

Recent events are prime examples …

Sovereign debt downgrades: While the world’s Big Three rating agencies — Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch — stubbornly maintained stellar grades for the world’s largest sovereign nations, our Weiss Ratings was …

* the only rating agency in the world to challenge them to downgrade long-term U.S. debt (5/10/2010) …

* the first rating agency to assign a low grade and downgrade the United States (4/28/11, 7/15/11), and …

* the first to assign low grades and downgrade major European countries (4/28/11, 9/1/11).

Bank collapse warnings: Even as nearly everyone thought the world’s banks were safe and strong, we warned that

* there are still 2,707 banks and 2,584 credit unions in America vulnerable to future financial woes and even potential failure (4/18/11) …

* Bank of America plus 11 other giant banks are vulnerable to financial disaster (8/29/11, 9/26/11), and …

* major European megabanks could be among the first to collapse (10/10/11).

European crisis alerts: While nearly every pundit on Earth was singing the glories of “the European growth revival,” Money and Markets and Safe Money editor Mike Larson showed you …

* how the next European dominoes were going to fall (1/14/11) …

* how the European authorities were rapidly losing their battle against the debt crisis (5/27/11), and …

* why shocking new failures are possible in the U.S. and overseas (1/31/11).

Commodity market rout: While nearly every pundit on the planet was finally turning wildly bullish on gold, silver and natural resources, Weiss Research analysts were among the few that had the courage to buck the crowd by boldly warning of a temporary — but very dramatic — correction.

In August, Real Wealth and Uncommon Wisdom editor Larry Edelson wrote “silver is vulnerable to a crash” and “gold can fall back to … $1,359.” He stressed that “over roughly the next six to nine months, the Western world is at risk of a mini-2008 type panic. That means most commodities are also vulnerable to another shakeout.”

In November, Mike Larson warned: “After a long period of staying bullish on commodities, my outlook has been unabashedly bearish in the last few months. My reason is fairly straightforward: Government stimulus spending is drying up, and monetary policymakers can’t push through aggressive quantitative easing because of political resistance. … That’s a recipe for falling demand and falling prices.”

And for many months, Weiss Research currency expert Jack Crooks has been consistently warning of sharp declines in all currencies tied to commodity prices, especially the Australian dollar.

We cannot predict every trend. Nor can we always be unanimous in our views. But in each case, not only did our readers have abundant time to use the advance warnings to escape the dangers … but they also had many opportunities to profit from them handsomely.

Now, finally, others are beginning to
see what we saw many moons ago.

Fitch has warned that a comprehensive euro-zone deal is now “beyond reach,” placing six euro-zone countries on short-term downgrade watch.

Fitch has also downgraded Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and five others.

Moody’s has downgraded Belgium by two notches, warning that soaring borrowing costs are straining the finances of heavily indebted countries like Belgium.

Standard & Poor’s is now planning potentially traumatic and devastating ratings downgrades for France and possibly even Germany.

And in its strongest warning yet, the IMF itself has warned that the global economy could soon see another Great Depression.

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Why a 2008-Type Scenario
Is Now Unavoidable!

In 2008, we witnessed a sinking global economy, sinking financial markets and a series of debt collapses.

Plus, in the months that followed, we saw solid investments selling at a fraction of their true value, opening up some of the greatest buying opportunities of our era.

Among the main causes of the next big decline: The vicious cycle between sinking banks and sinking sovereign countries.

Why? Because the world’s largest banks are up to their eyeballs in the bonds of failing countries. But, at the same time, the economies of those same countries are being dragged down by their failing banks.

Ironically, in response, all they can seem to do is point fingers.

* The banks accuse their governments of fiscal follies, demanding major budget cutbacks, while, at the same time …

* The governments accuse their banks of reckless risks, demanding they build more capital.

Fundamentally speaking, BOTH prescriptions are correct. But in actual practice, those same prescriptions merely accelerate the vicious cycle: The more that governments cut their budgets, the more it sinks the economy and the bigger the banks’ losses. At the same time, the more that banks seek to build their capital, the more they have to pull back on lending — a key factor driving the global economy into a tailspin.

Think I’m overstating the problem?
Then consider these horrifying facts.

Weiss Ratings has just completed a major study of global banking. The results won’t be ready for release until early next year. But here are the big-picture conclusions:

First, among the major banks in the world, the 16 largest that we have identified as weak and vulnerable now control a whopping $26 trillion of the world’s banking assets, far more than the TOTAL assets of all U.S. commercial banks.

Second, since their share prices hit their peak after the last debt crisis, these 16 banks alone have suffered stock price declines that equate to a whopping $535.6 billion loss in market capitalization.

In other words, the banks are HUGE — the primary source of financing for the entire world. But their ability to raise capital has been gutted by the decline in their share prices.

And yet, these are precisely the banks that must issue more stock to RAISE more capital in order to avoid bankruptcy!

How can they do that when their share prices are so low? And how can they avoid cutting back dramatically on their lending?

They can’t. They won’t. That’s why the global economy is headed for a 2008-2009-type scenario. And that’s why you MUST be fully prepared.

My advice:

Follow the steps my team and I have been recommending.

And stand by for urgent updates in the critical days ahead.

Good luck and God bless!

Martin

Dr. Weiss founded Weiss Research in 1971 and has dedicated the past 40 years to helping millions of average investors find truly safe havens and investments. He is president of Weiss Ratings, the nation’s leading independent rating agency accepting no fees from rated companies. And he is the chairman of the Sound Dollar Committee, originally founded by his father in 1959 to help President Dwight D. Eisenhower balance the federal budget. His last three books have all been New York Times Bestsellers and his most recent title is The Ultimate Money Guide for Bubbles, Busts, Recesssion and Depression.

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{ 29 comments… read them below or add one }

MaCa Monday, December 19, 2011 at 8:26 am

Dear Martin,

I really do appreciate your and your team’s work and have followed your advice for the last two years. All through this year though I have started to wonder about the predictions you people have come up with. First, the muni bond debacle: what happened? Absolutely nothing! Sure some US states have been under water for some months in 2011 – but do we hear anything about it? No. Do we officially read they are bankrupt? No. These states are quietly bailed out somehow…. and there are no consequences whatsoever for anybody. Much to the contrary: Muni and other bonds have rallied over 2011! Same story with the debt ceiling debate in August, then the Super Committee debate in November. No success, admittedly, but what happened afterwards? Again nothing at all, and nothing will happen, because Mr. Helicopter Ben knows what to do….!! No downgrades by the rating agencies you predicted, no market downturn as foreseen in your many messages. See what happened end of last week? A US government shutdown was quietly avoided – AGAIN!!! Hardly anybody heard about it. The US budget was quietly extended, and Mr. Obama agreed to extend the tax cuts for a few months.

In my humble opinion things are SO terribly corrupt now in the US, and for that matter even worse in the UK – much more than in Europe (sorry!) – that no big banks will fail, no governments will fail, no municipalities will fail, and no US states will ever go bankrupt. When we will get direly to the precipice, Ben’s printing machine will be working double or triple speed in order to bail out the whole world! These guys were frightened stiff about what happened in 2008/2009, and therefore will never let it happen again.

Although what happened in 2008 was shocking and to some extent came suddenly, people on the top this time around are well prepared and will know what to do much faster and react much swifter in order to avoid disaster. So what worked in 2008 in way of short investments could be the exact opposite this time around. We’ve been sitting on those short investments for so long I just can’t believe they will ever pay. The disaster in the long run will be much worse, but I don’t think we are there yet for a number of years. The biggest disaster presumably will be after the big printing spree during the next few years, but until then, I suppose we can go bankrupt betting on another big and sudden downturn…. Things are watched very closely by those nice people ready to help.

And this is, in my view, the only thing that is different this time.

Thanks for your good work and advice, encouragement, and wise thinking.

PS. Perhaps my view is not exactly in your interest, however, I wish it could be published for the sheer sake of democratic thinking.

Reply

Frances Monday, December 19, 2011 at 8:43 am

MaCa, I’m terribly sorry for the predictament Martin and Mike have put your money and trust in. Why do people like yourselfve give your hard earned money to people you don’t even know. You can’t even get a track record from them.

Martin and Mikey are doing to you what they said they would protect you from.

Truth be told…your shorts will never pay off at this point. If such a dramatic end to the financial world happens, as they have lead you to believe, there won’t any body to dump your shorts on.

Long story short, Marty and Mikey NEED the markets to drop…..drop hard…drop fast and drop deep….everyday that paradox gets worse…..

Reply

Frances Monday, December 19, 2011 at 10:20 am

Here’ a nice summary of results from how downgrades “helkp”….everything I preached about 4 months ago is happening….Michael…are you out there??..downgrades?…..bring ‘em on….

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-18/s-p-downgrade-proves-absurd-as-global-investors-make-u-s-assets-preferred.html

Who ya gonna believe, huh??????..marty and Mikey??…or?/..your lying eyes…

Reply

jrj90620 Monday, December 19, 2011 at 12:14 pm

Weiss seems to be blaming the people in govt for this mess.If it were that simple,I would be more optimistic.The problem is much bigger than that.The problem is a big,powerful govt,with all kinds of ways of interfering in the economy, in the hands of American voters,who are long term ignorant and short term greedy.The vast majority of Americans have no idea how an economy works or what should be done.They,therefore,just vote for whomever promises them the most “something for nothing”.In other words,whomever gives them the most govt spending and lowest taxes.Imagine if any company were run by typical American voters.They would be quickly bankrupt,just like our govt is.There are only 2 solutions.1)A much smaller govt with much less power to influence the economy,no matter what voters do or 2)intelligent,honest voters.I see no signs of either happening.So,we continue declining until we hit a bottom.Who knows when that will be?

Reply

MaCa Monday, December 19, 2011 at 1:01 pm

Frances,

I fully appreciate what you say. However, lets try to stay objective: First of all, no Weiss Research member asks anybody to “entrust” their money. If we are supposed grown ups, then we take advice from whomever we like, but face up to our own responsibilities in handling our own money. Second, I seem to have been misunderstood. I simply think that Martin and also Mike Larsen and the others may make recommendations not only on their know-how in economics, but also on past experience. But to me this past experience seems doubtful because the big guys mentioned in my comment before, will not let a big crash happen again – that’s what I was trying to say.

Now, I can fully understand people who use past experience as examples, because in my life I do the very same! And, please also admit, they – and not only they – don’t have the crystal ball for the future. So we are back to square one. Take their advice, or leave it! It’s up to us….. I still think their warnings are for the good of people, but of course you may have a different opinion on this.

Thanks also for the Bloomberg article you referred me to. Now this one I must really object to. I cannot believe the big rubbish contained in there, sorry too much! You don’t really want me to believe in the US bonds being the Best Bonds, do you? Foreign demand may be perfectly high now (for whatever reasons I don’t understand, but perhaps it’s because people just don’t search any further), strengthening economy???? What a joke! Everybody knows figures out of the US are completely manipulated and fraud, even job statistics and the like – no, please! Reserve currency: yes, that is something that has been arranged to US’s full advantage by your forefathers, but for how long? And you don’t really want me to be impressed by Warren Buffet’s remarks on the US deserving the quadruple A, with the debt load it has, with the and government and military apparatus it maintains, with the unfunded liabilities of social security and medicare? Hey, let’s think objectively about this…. Now if believe the Bloomberg (a government sponsored entity, please never forget!), then I feel sorry for YOU!!

To resume: I don’t blame Martin or Mike or any Weiss Research member for investments I made! I was simply wondering, in my own right and own responsibility, whether the calls they make – and they sound perfectly honest to me – can be applied to today’s situation because of the whole world context that has changed.

Still, I thank you for your thoughts on the matter too. Our taking the time to read and write about these things make this whole discussion so worthwhile. And we keep learning from one another.

Have a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!

MaCa

Reply

Shankar Thursday, December 22, 2011 at 4:49 am

MaCa,
I liked your analytical thinking and putting the same in writing. Hope many people who read benefit. I feel these currencies and too much inter related.
I am from India. In recent times the rupee price fell drastically, it created a new all-time record against dollar. (Touched 54 rupees for 1 $). In similar scenario (2008) the rupee was corrected but not this drastically. I interpret as some new hollowness is responsible, which is yet to be known to all public.
I wait and see to find the rupee touching 60. NO as indicated somewhere in the article, people at top are watching and take less time to react. This is what exactly happened, reserve bank intervened and rupee appreciated again. BUT how long reserve bank can do this, if the GDP growth is low and debt is increasing because of the politically motivated benefits to people.
It is incidental that Weiss research raised Indian Sovran debt rating; I am surprised to see this. I feel it is not the case on the ground (with my limited knowledge and tiny circle of influence). So I feel it is better to give thought about the advice and UNDERSTAND the situation better with own analysis. But always I take Weiss advice as basis for further thinking.

Have a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!

Reply

Mark F Monday, December 19, 2011 at 3:21 pm

MaCa, I’ve been reading Weiss for a long time. They looked great in 2008-2009. Stopped clock phenomenon, how it’s right twice a day? What you describe, about how their perennial bearishness hasn’t been panning out is exactly what happens when the person looking at a stopped clock starts to complain that the clock is running slow (as it continues to flash 1:17, 1:17, 1:17).

I think Weiss produces some very valuable information. But, you really have to filter out all the hyperbole and hubris, and constant stream of “as I told you 4 months ago.”

It reminds me of something I noticed with a religious show. I remember tuning into a prophecy show in 1977. “Rainbow money… mark of the beast; European Union, ho of babylon; plagues, earthquakes; smart weaponry; current events prove the APOCALYPSE!!!”

Occasionally I pass through one of those shows. It doesn’t matter whether it was 1987, 97, 2007. It’s the same stuff.

Weiss always reminds me of that. Just like the religious shows, there’s some good stuff to think about. But, not entirely balanced.

Reply

MaCa Tuesday, December 20, 2011 at 3:21 am

Mark F,

thanks for replying. I agree with your comments. When I hear too much gloom all the time, I start to become suspicious as well as it does sound like prophetic apocalypse. As I said, we collect information in order to form our own picture, and then react accordingly.

Happy holidays!

Reply

Howard Tuesday, December 20, 2011 at 4:45 am

Hi Martin
Thanks for your further insights. No one can say with any certainty the timing of this collapse of the Euro, but some EEC boffins are determined to hang onto their dream and drag down as many G20 countries as they can. Regards

Reply

Frances Tuesday, December 20, 2011 at 8:18 am

As I predicted 60 days ago….here come the ECB “loans”…..heh, heh, heh….like taking canday away froma baby….

“…..a report showing German business optimism rising unexpectedly and as Spanish short-term financing costs fell sharply.”

…and..where have we heard this language befire??….

“Yields on three and six-month Spanish treasury bills fell sharply and demand surged in an auction on Tuesday, with analysts saying, according to Reuters, that banks were waiting to tap into an ECB three-year liquidity offer on Wednesday to pay for the higher-yielding Spanish bonds. ”

but…as Mike Larson says…NOBODY IS COMING TO THE RESCUE THIS TIME….

It’s all about the LIBOR kids…

Reply

Frances Tuesday, December 20, 2011 at 10:18 am

Awe shucks….you mean pricing has a lot to do with things…I just thought that when Mike the “Bond Guy” said Bondholders were overwhelmed it meant regardless of price……I guess pricing has a lot to do with how the world works…..that..and..supply/demand…what an idiot…

http://www.cnbc.com/id/45736367

Kinda unrelated..but..I can’t help myself…BTW..Mike?..marty?..How is your basket of muni’s doing??..oh, wait…you don’t have one…

I hear a sucking sound….sounds like Mike and Marty sucking the last of their subscribers X-mas money out their pockets….guess who gets the X-mas bonuses with your money now??..not Wall Street…but…yep..Mikey, Marty and the gang….just what they were protecting you from…

Reply

Dan Tuesday, December 20, 2011 at 11:34 am

You are an idiot

Reply

Frances Tuesday, December 20, 2011 at 11:46 am

You are incorrect again, dan…typcial Mike and Marty follower…I am a very wealthy idiot….you??..you are losing your welath every second..of every minute..of every hour..of every day….

Reply

Dan Tuesday, December 20, 2011 at 12:37 pm

I am also very wealthy but I am also very smart and do not have a dime invested in the ponzi scheme market.

Reply

Frances Tuesday, December 20, 2011 at 1:23 pm

Ponzi Schemes go both ways…..just ask Marty and MIke’s subscribers…

Reply

Frances Tuesday, December 20, 2011 at 1:25 pm

You see….I’ve made tons of $$ on my Ponzi Scheme..and..Marty and Mike’s subscribers??..they’ve lost money on their Pnzi scheme….call it what you want…

Reply

Frances Tuesday, December 20, 2011 at 12:11 pm

I love the phraseology “reflexive pessimism”….kinda sums up Marty and Mike’s track record over the last 4-5 years, huh??….

http://www.cnbc.com/id/45597811

I noted a parable several columns ago Mike and Marty should read..The Fox and the Hedgehog….they are without a doubt…hedgehogs…

Reply

Frances Tuesday, December 20, 2011 at 1:52 pm

Here’s a snippet from my Dec 16th comment on Mike Larson’s column……..December 16th…in the midst of the world falling apart….for the 17 th time this year…..I call 800 points…Sheet….I already have 400 of it since then…

“For those who know…the LIBOR is escorting Santa to town……

I love the LIBOR!!!!…..the LIBOR is barking at my wittle Boy Blunder….when ya know ya know…when ya don’t ya follow Mkey and Marty…

800 points…coooooming up!!!!!”

December 16th…in the midst of the world falling apart….for the 17 th time this year…..I call 800 points…Sheet….I already have 400 of it since then…

Reply

Manuel Tuesday, December 20, 2011 at 4:42 pm

Frances,

I find it amazing that the Weiss censors haven’t begun to block your comments. Keep telling the truth about these characters.

Reply

bullsalwayswin2010 Tuesday, December 20, 2011 at 8:14 pm

Rally on suckers!! YEAH BABY!! You’re partying on a dance floor over the pit to hell!

You better being wearing a helmet when we run into 1292-1315! There’s a lot of air pockets below along with very flimsy support levels till we get all the way down to around 1050.

Everything is accelerated these days–time compression means that the plunge will happen faster than ever. 2012 is just the warm up act for the crash in the US bond market in 2-3 years. If you want to be a buy and hold investor raise cash prior to the crash because you’re going to get some great discounts on stocks very soon!

Population growth and inflation will mean that corporate profits and stock prices will always go up over the very long run, and (smart) bulls will always win! YEAH BABY!!

Reply

Manuel Tuesday, December 20, 2011 at 11:13 pm

Hey Martin,

How about setting up another Million Dollar Contrarian Fund like you did in Q2 ’09. I wonder how much that one backfired on your investors. You really showed your financial and investing brilliance there.

Reply

Frances Wednesday, December 21, 2011 at 7:23 pm

Man…two days in a row closes above 123.16…Come on..let’s all say it together…

Short Squeeeeeze coming up!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!………………….loving every minute of it…..

SPY blazing to 126-plus……Heck..DOW could rocket 1,000 points starting from last Friday….

Hey!!..Mikey??!!….you better watch out….you better not pout….santa Claus is coming to town…

I love your latest newsletter with the folllowing headline in big, bold letters…”THE SANTA CLAUS RALLY IS DEAD”….

It’s all about the UK and the LIBOR for the next few weeks, kiddies…..don’t see it do ya?????

Reply

bullsalwayswin2010 Thursday, December 22, 2011 at 6:10 am

Who said Santa Claus Rally is dead? Mike or Martin? …geez. sheeeesh! Crappy market timers, even worse than me I guess.

I at least appreciate that in the article above Martin gives himself a whole year to be right by making commentary about 2012 in general. I think he will very likely get his “I told you so” moment very early in the year too.

Reply

Frances Thursday, December 22, 2011 at 7:08 am

Totally, “Bulls”….I picked up on the on year-out too…I wonder if his minions did…set them all up to be baited for another year….

I guess the market is rigged only when it goes up, huh??……what an investement philosophy…that’s why Bears always lose…

That’s right Bears…I hope you can understand the depth of my comment….I’ll repeat it..

“The market is only rigged when it goes up”……..dan will like that one….

Reply

Frances Thursday, December 22, 2011 at 7:12 am

BTW, I’ll move forward a discussion point brought up earlier by another writier….

WHAT THE HELL IS MARTIN A Ph.D. IN????>…..

He certainly covets it…..probably makes the Bears feel warm and fuzzy they are being led by a Doctor….BTW…Guess what the “leader” of Syria is….that’s right..a DOCTOR!!…great leader…

He’s probably a Doctor in “rehashing-fake-dad-stories”……..I hear if you tell it enough times, it becomes true….in your own head…

Reply

Frances Thursday, December 22, 2011 at 9:06 am

Case in point…I predict…

Mikey will jump all over the revised GDP (lower than expectations) in his column tomorrow…like its “golden”….and he’s taking it to the bank…

Now?..if it was revised up??…he would be crying the market is rigged and what a folly the GDP is in the first place….blah, blah, blah..\

What he’ll fail on as he always does…is?..the GDP, up or down is simply looking at what HAS ALREADY happened…sure…it may be part of a forward looking trend…but….man…watch next time… it’ll revised upward…..then it’ll be rigged!!!!..

Mikey is a funny, little guy….
\

Reply

Frances Thursday, December 22, 2011 at 11:02 pm

Hey, MArty subscribers….did ya pick up on marty baiting ya in to follow him for just one more year??…cause it’s gonna be worse than 2008….makes sense to me..

here’s a contrarian opinion to your contrarian….who ya gonna believe…

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44895356

Buckle up Marty worshippers…yer gonna be right maybe 2 next year for approx 36 hours……right means only losing 150 %…

I highly suggest, if you bears want to “save’ money, you contact your Congressmen/women and beg them to increase the capital loss provision….rolling over 3,000 a year for 30 years ain’t gonna cut it…inflation will kill that…

Again??..What the hell is MArty a Ph.D in?????…..

Reply

RP Friday, December 30, 2011 at 12:05 am

I Frances,
Thanks for the UK website..Now I know what Marty has PhD in..Anthropology..and.. I think Mike has a BA in fine arts. I still don’t understand why they are still going with fear mongering perma bear stance. My first stock buy was done in mid 2008, after few grredy and panicky cycles, I made some good money..until I came across one of Marty’s end of the world advertizements. Being novice at that time, I got sucked in and lost some money by hedgin with SDS, DXD, SRS, SKF..part of the recommendations from Money and Markets…only, after I got burnt with those double LEVERAGED inverse ETFs. Luckly, after loosing some of the money I gained , I understood the leveraged ETFs are meant for day traders and nobody in right mind uses them for market down turn protection. Even with my limited exposure to stock market, I was able to undesrtand how rigged the game is and the market will move up and down..and we have to be ready to go long and short as we see fit. Unfortunately, Marty and company seems ignorant of this fact and recently ramped up their advertizements. I hope the new bees wil realize what they are into early enough, before loosing all the money … more importantly … their sanity – RP

Reply

RP Sunday, December 25, 2011 at 6:08 pm

Like a broken clock, Mike and Marty may be right about the fin ancial are nearmage 2nd time in near future, after the last one in 2008..but, if you folow them blindly without your own due deligence…you are gaurenteed to be bankrupt way before everybody else!! Without a doubt, the current market is a gaint ponzi scheme …fully backed up by world governments, hedge funds ripping hedgefunds, with retail investors skrewed in between with massive up and down market gyrations. I think, the only way to keep your shirt intact would be ..to hedge your positions ..both long and short!! Good luck to you all, happy holidays —— RP

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