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For the first time in decades, the Middle East is on the brink of a war that could involve multiple countries … on multiple fronts … with many dimensions — civil war, guerrilla war, religion-based war and economic war.
We now know — based on public official pronouncements and even quantitative measures — that the probability of war is now extremely high:
At the Lloyds of London, where brokers set insurance premiums for oil tankers in the region, rates are rising rapidly.
In the global oil markets, where traders and speculators factor in the risk of war, prices have moved steadily higher.
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And right at this very moment, President Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu are getting ready to meet at the White House TODAY — in the first of several steps on the path to war.
Most people know what their agenda is: How to bridge differences in their most like war scenarios.
What most people DON’T yet realize, however, is that those differences are now more tactical than strategic:
- Mr. Netanyahu wants to attack before Iran’s nuclear capability is so deeply protected underground that it’s beyond the reach of Israel’s most powerful bombs.
- Mr. Obama, meanwhile, is willing to wait longer — not just because he wants to give economic sanctions a chance to work, but also because America’s bunker-busting bombs can penetrate more deeply into the ground.
But here’s the key: The only major point of disagreement between them is not WHETHER to attack Iran.
It’s merely WHEN.
Indeed, it’s safe to say that …
The probability of major regional war is now as great as — or greater than — it was in the days before the Yom Kippur War.
And that was in 1973, nearly four decades ago! Since then, a lot has changed!
Indeed, as I explained here last week, this conflict brings to the fore a series of new dangers that were not of major concern in prior Middle East wars.
Specifically, unlike the situation in the 1970s, we now have …
• Popular rebellions and revolutions in oil-producing countries across the region.
• Nuclear weapon capabilities — and near-term nuclear ambitions — in the Middle East ITSELF … and under the auspices of very unstable regimes.
• Major powers, such as the U.S., E.U. and Japan, that are now far more vulnerable to the economic consequences, due to their massive government debts and unprecedented reliance on foreign energy sources. Plus …
• A far more powerful China, which is rapidly eating up natural resources and contributing to drum-tight oil supplies.
So what’s next?
We now have confirmation from multiple sources that, with or without U.S. approval, Israel is planning a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities within the next few months.
We now know that the Iranian regime has overtly and publicly warned that it will take pre-emptive action against perceived foes if it feels its national interests are threatened.
Most important, it’s hard to imagine any Iranian-Israeli war scenario that does not directly or indirectly involve the entire region and some of the most powerful nations in the world, including the U.S., Russia and China.
If you hear the drumbeat of news on a day to day basis, you can lose site of the magnitude of the crisis. But just step back for a moment and consider how it has escalated …
* Iran has repeatedly rebuked legal demands by the International Atomic Energy Agency to inspect its nuclear sites.
* The European Union has voted to embargo Iranian oil imports.
* Iran has pledged to halt oil exports to the UK and France to pre-empt that embargo.
* Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s busiest oil shipping lanes used by ALL of the world’s major nations.
* Iran has overtly threatened to use its ballistic missiles to strike Israel’s population centers.
* Iran has the support of the world’s largest country (Russia) AND, at the same time, of the world’s most populous country (China) as well, which buys a whopping 30% of its oil.
* Iran is the driving force of a long-standing cold war within the Middle East — pitting Shia against Sunni and pitting its allies (including Iraq) against the allies of oil-rich Saudi Arabia.
* Iran is THE primary arms supplier to Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, organizations which remain in a state of war with Israel.
* Iran is THE big regional ally of the one Middle East country where war is now already exploding: Syria … where President Bashar al-Assad has responded to local rebellions with brutal efficiency, killing an estimated 7,500 citizens in less than a year.
How does the Syrian conflict play into the looming war? Just connect the dots, and you will see that …
* Syria ALSO has advanced supersonic cruise missiles that could strike Israeli population centers.
* Syria also could strike Israel through its alliances with Hezbollah and Lebanon and Hamas.
* And Syria would have every reason to join Iran in a war against Israel in order to “unite” its people and justify its current efforts to squash its internal rebellion.
The clincher is that, throughout each of these conflicts …
All roads lead to one place and one
resource: The Persian Gulf and OIL.
The Persian Gulf and the countries that surround produce 43% of the world’s yearly crude oil supplies and are responsible for 64% of the world’s oil reserves.
So it’s widely recognized that any disruption — let alone DESTRUCTION — of those supplies would create havoc in global oil markets.
What’s not widely recognized is that this time the stakes are higher, involving more countries, more oil, more money, and as I stated earlier, more dangers!
Right now, oil prices are already rising as tensions in the Middle East escalate, and it’s no secret that higher crude prices translate directly into higher gasoline costs at the pump.
Those trends are likely to continue, and even accelerate, as the region draws ever closer to war.
So if there’s anyone in America who still doesn’t “get it,” the coming events will make it PAINFULLY obvious that the U.S. must urgently shift away from its dependence on foreign oil.
It must shift toward a new energy source that is cheaper than crude oil, which will not threaten our national security, and which is available DOMESTICALLY!
Fortunately, there is ONE energy source that meets ALL of those requirements: Natural gas.
Good luck and God bless!
Martin
Obama definitely will not want to be known as a president who went to war. Not after Iraq and Afganistan. Of course Israel knows this, but cannot say it diplomatically. Moshe, you’re on your own.
So, what’s nu?
I do not think that Obama will attack one of his own “Muslim”
The US State Department helped fund Iran’s nuclear program.
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2008/11/u-s-is-funding-iranian-nuclear-program.html
Israel has claimed that Iran is an “imminent nuclear threat” since 1979!
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/1108/Imminent-Iran-nuclear-threat-A-timeline-of-warnings-since-1979/Earliest-warnings-1979-84
The US and Israel just admitted that Iran is NOT building a nuke.
http://www.uruknet.info/?p=m85115&fb=1
Where’s the proof?
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/contrary-widespread-claims-there-no-evidence-iran-building-nuclear-weapon
One wonders how much T.Boone is paying for all the Weiss promotions? He is a self serving slickster who wants you and I to pay for subsidies for truckers to buy Natgas engined trucks, to the tune of 60k each. Ethanol can replace all oil AND natural gas AND coal use and cause more food not less as a result (the protein is not consumed in the process). Won’t be dependent on the big boys either. Right now the big boys are trying to export OUR natural gas AND coal to drive up the price. Have been exporting our OIL for years. Makes perfect sense if you want to keep prices high and cripple the usa. These big oil and natgas bums don’t give a flip about america. Don’t believe the bought and paid for big oil and gas paid for lies about ethanol. Do your own research http://www.alcoholcanbeagas.com, research Brazil. Henry Ford preferred it for good reason. And for the enviros, it is carbon neutral unlike any fossil fuel.
I’m afraid Martin Weiss is spot on with his impending war scenario. Everyone is so concerned about Iran getting a nuclear weapon, well I believe that they could easily buy all they want from – India , Pakistan . India , Russia , China . And mustn’t forget North Korea who are even nutty than Iran.
No the real reason this war will be fought is to gain control of Iran’s rich rich Banking Systems & looting of their Natural Resources , if a war is fought many many thousands of America’s Sons & Daughters will be sacrificed to further the agenda of the banking cartel elite. Those that so badly support a Iranian War will send not one of their own to fight it.
The only person with any sense in regards to starting World War III is Ron Paul & I suppose that is why the active & retired military support him in such great numbers – 3x’s as much campaign contributions than all the other candidates combined including OBAMEE. These poor kids over there now know that the Terrorist Bogeyman is all Fabricated & they want their nightmare to end and come home. Well I say Ron Paul is right let them come home, this is not our fight , let the troops guard our borders here in the USA.
Know This – if Iran or any country would cross the line and attack one of our bases , ships etc – Ron Paul would go to Congress , have an Act Of War Declared & than he would commit all resources to end any and all conflict quickly., He would not drag out a war just to benefit the defense companies, this man is a Veteran and smarter than anyone in Washington. Why is it that the media never shows the thousands and thousands of supporters that show up at his rally’s & debates , because then they would have to show the only 5 or 10 that show up for Newt , Ricky , Mitt . The war on terror is just a slickly done fabrication, and of course the sheep lap that kooliad up in gulps, for they have lost the ability to think for themselves .
So what will it be a false flag ( such as Israel did on the USS LIBERTY ) in my opinion to involve the USA in this conflict some kind of a false flag event will be necessary. To bad that all Media – TV , Radio , NewsPrint is all scripted from the same controlling sources – one of their biggest jokes is the right vs left game that is played out daily. Well enough ranting, God Bless Our Son’s & Daughters Who Serve
We the banks
I am not sure whether Iran can acquire nuclear weapons in next few months or so. I did not get the point why Israel should strike in next few months not next year? Because Afghan war is coming to closure and Iraq war is over?
Finally who will create the war? Iran-America-Israel-Pakistan-Russia-China-US internal defense industry- Russian Internal military industry? These many people are involved in this. I think some one of the above lot will create some disturbance in some part of the war and see that it will lead to war.
Take the example of terrorist attack on Israel diplomat in Delhi, India. India is buying the oil from Iran. Said that they will continue buying and looking for alternate currency arrangement for payments. So Iran might have not attacked. If Israel is un-happy why they attack their own diplomats. So someone from somewhere is trying to flame the tensions which might lead to war.
God know what is going to happen in next few months but these tensions will continue for next decade as well.
God bless all of us.
America was warned, repeatedly, about foreign alliances and entanglements. This was to be a Nation of craftsmen and merchants. Time to cut the strings.
Iran would be wise to not take the bait and target US bases in the region…would be similar to the Japanese blunder at Pearl Harbor. In any shooting war, regardless of the degree of US involvement, I don’t see any way that the price of oil doesn’t explode higher; so its in the self interest of the broke western governments to continue the diplomatic process. Israel in the meantime will continue to pursue and deny its covert attacks against Iranian scientists and facilities.
This is whole thing is flaring up (AGAIN) due to elections in Israel, Iran, and US; it’s Israel pulling our strings again; playing high stakes politics to further their own cause…every American is on the hook for the consequences of their manipulations. Bush (the decider) had to hold Israel’s leash for years; and to restrain them from not bombing Iranian nuclear targets while he was president.
I say let Iran develop a nuke if they want. When they get one we sit them down, welcome them to the club, and explain the rules. The world didn’t end when N. Korea and Pakistan got the bomb. It would be suicide for Iran to ever use a nuke against Israel, any other US ally, or in an unprovoked manner against anyone for that matter. The majority of the world would condemn the act and support the complete decimation, occupation, and disarmament of their country.
Bullshit. If israel was going to do anything, it would have happened by now.
David, I expected more objective picture and understanding of the Middle East from you, but I am not surprised. Blood is not water and love is not always the best friend of brain.
Anyway, I suggest a) find more about 4 millenia long history of Persia and Persian culture (they really are no blood hungry apes) b) find about economic and social fabric of current Iran (you might be surprised) c) learn something about Iranians in war (when did they attack anybody last time) d) imagine, you are an Iranian and somebody armed as hell, with 200+ illegal nukes and a big insane Gorilla under his command is only hoping you make something crazy that will allow them to wipe you out. Would you, David, be crazy enough to issue a death warrant to your fellow Iranians? Or, do you believe Iran is one big mental ward?
I have no doubt that Iranian may suffer badly, but there is no easy way to defeat them. What is more important, attacking Iran geopolitically means deadly attack against Russian underbelly and China´s economy. They already decided Iran is their last stance, here they fight for their own destiny. That is the way it is…… Poor Israel, if it looses its mind and lets the riders of Apocalypse out.