“So, what gives, Larry? For years, you have been right as rain on gold and silver, and now, it seems like you’re striking out left and right?”
“You told us the metals would bottom in January. Instead, they rallied and you missed the rally.”
“You told us the metals would then bottom again in May, and now I hear you think the bottom might be in.”
“You got the latest decline right, but have gold and silver bottomed or are they heading still lower?
“Have you lost your bearings, Larry? Or worse, your mind?”
That summarizes a lot of the emails I’ve been getting lately. So let me respond now.
I appreciate everyone’s comments. And yes, I have missed the mark lately.
But let’s put everything in perspective:
First, the short-term swings are always extremely difficult to pin down — and even far more difficult when entering a period where a major trend turn is expected.
Second, I am 100 percent confident that the metals are bottoming this year and that gold and silver are headed substantially higher in the years ahead.
Third, the extremely high level of investor emotions in the gold and silver markets right now is very typical at major turns. So try to stay objective. Getting emotional will only cause you to make mistakes.
Fourth, all the underlying fundamental, cyclical and technical conditions for a new bull market in gold and silver are in place. The most important one: The rising tide of the war cycles and geo-political stress.
Fifth, I will get you as close to the bottom as humanly possible, not just in terms of price — but more importantly — to the point in time and price when the potential downside risk versus the upside rewards offers the best profile.
I can say that, confidently, because I don’t know anyone in the business that has as accurate a long-term track record forecasting the major turns in the precious metals as I do.
From the 1980 high to the low in 2000, to buying the pullback in the middle of the financial crisis in 2008/09.
To declaring the top was in mere days after gold hit its record $1,921 high in September 2011.
To the three-year bear market since then.
I remain 100 percent confident that my successful long-term track record will continue well into the future.
Now, let me give you a more detailed explanation of what’s happening in gold and silver.
As I recently told my Real Wealth Report subscribers, it is simply too soon to determine whether or not the precious metals have bottomed.
There are, no doubt, a lot of reasons to be bullish now, including Ukraine and the fact that gold has rallied a smart $200 since its $1,180 low on the last day of December, taking out my system resistance levels at $1,320 and chart resistance at the $1,360 level.
Yet since then, gold and silver have both — as expected — pulled back sharply. And let me remind you, many investors who jumped on the recent rally, ignoring my advice, are already suffering losses.
That said, due to their recent price declines,
very importantly, there is now
only one scenario left for gold and silver.
If gold and silver have indeed already bottomed, then …
1. Gold must hold the $1,278 level (basis spot, or cash) on a closing basis and start to rally anew. And …
2. Silver must hold its June 2013 low at $18.18 on a closing basis, and start to rally anew.
Anything short of the above, and gold and silver will be headed to new lows later this year.
Given we are so close now to the final tipping point for gold and silver, the next two logical questions are:
“First, if gold and silver are so close to confirming a bottom, price-wise, why not just start buying now?
Second, what about mining shares?”
A. I am conservative. I’m the kind of guy who likes proof, concrete proof, before making any final decisions.
So if gold and silver’s recent declines hold the above levels … and they start to rally anew and execute minor buy signals on my systems, then I will not hesitate to tell you the bottom is in.
B. The same applies to mining shares. Each mining share of course has its own set of conditions and circumstances, ditto for mining share ETFs.
But when push comes to shove, before I start recommending mining shares, I want to be extremely confident that gold and silver have indeed confirmed a bottom.
So until then, the jury on mining shares is still out.
For now, watch the above numbers for gold and silver. They are indeed CRITICAL.
While I cannot tell you precisely what to do if those levels hold – Specific recommendations are naturally reserved for members of Real Wealth Report and my trading services – I will give you updates in my Monday columns.