Some pundits make their careers out of predicting the obvious. Others talk about the future in vague generalities.
Not my colleague Larry Edelson. What he has just achieved leaves those kinds of forecasts in the dust.
“My Models Predict Trump Will Win the White House”
— Larry Edelson, September 28, 2016
Two months ago, at a time when both Democrats and Republicans were certain that “Donald Trump couldn’t possibly win the presidency” … when leaders in nearly every country were preparing to welcome Hillary Clinton as “the new leader of the free world” … and when global investors were placing their bets on the “coming Hillary recession (or boom)” …
Larry had both the vision and the guts to defy them all. In a bold headline, he wrote that “Trump will win the White House.” And even as Trump’s prospects dipped dramatically after the presidential debates, he never retreated from that forecast. (Hard to believe? Then click here to see for yourself.)
Plus, there were also other key factors that alerted us to the strong possibility of a Trump victory. That’s why, last May (Will Trump Win or Lose?) …
- I told you Trump enjoyed tremendous upward momentum. And it was that same kind of momentum that sprung up on election day.
- I stressed that Trump naysayers had been dead wrong in the primaries and could be dead wrong again. They were.
- I demonstrated that Trump was virtually invulnerable to attacks or outside events. “Like a stock price that already reflects the bad news,” we wrote, “Trump’s numbers already reflect most of his political weaknesses. In contrast, Clinton’s event risk is high.” This also proved to be very true.
- And I reminded you that the “FBI investigation of Clinton’s emails hangs over her campaign like the Sword of Damocles.” Sure enough, that sword dropped just 11 days before Election Day.
But the big question is …
For the answers, I’ve just called Larry, and he made four critical forecasts for the immediate and intermediate future. Here’s the transcript …
Larry Edelson: No single person, not even the president of the United States, is more powerful than the historical cycles. These are cycles that embody the sum total of all economic, political, social — and even physical — forces that are already in place.
It’s the objective, nonpartisan analysis of those cycles that helped me forecast Trump’s victory. And it’s that same kind of analysis that will help guide you in coping with the events I’m forecasting right now.
Martin Weiss: Please name them.
Larry: Forecast #1 is a bond market crisis, something I’ve been warning readers about consistently. (See “The Worst Sovereign Debt Crisis Ever,” Global Bond Market Insanity, and Roughly Every 80 Years, the Piper Always Gets Paid.”)
Martin: A crisis that’s been percolating for months.
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Larry: Right. But it’s only now that investors are finally waking up to smell the coffee, and Trump’s election was the trigger.
Martin: Everyone saw how, on election night, Dow futures plunged over 800 points. But then everyone also saw how, the next morning, they bounced all the way back — and beyond.
Larry: True, but what most average people didn’t see is the unfolding drama in the U.S. Treasury bond market. Like the Dow, bond prices plunged on election night. But unlike the Dow, they continued to do so in the trading sessions that ensued. Ditto for muni bonds, which, last Thursday, suffered their worst one-day decline in over five years.
Globally, it’s even worse. Since the election bond markets around the world have lost over $1 trillion in value, according to Bloomberg News.
Martin: I see how this could be a major sea change for bonds. But what’s the connection to Trump?
Larry: Maybe foreign central banks, such as the Bank of China, want to start unloading U.S. Treasuries before Trump starts renegotiating trade deals or threatening to slap on tariffs.
Maybe global investors are afraid that his tax cuts and public works projects will bloat the U.S. deficit or even bring on hyperinflation.
But does their specific rationale really matter? Like we said — and like Trump himself has said — the debt bubble was, and is, a huge disaster waiting to happen. It was just a matter of when.
Martin: Forecast #2?
Larry: Gold’s next big move.
Martin: I notice you gave readers a buy signal in mid-October (Gold’s Next Rally: Don’t Miss It) and you nailed down the forecast with the green line in this chart:
Then, you gave readers a second, confirming signal two weeks later. (Gold Rally Is Significant.) But what’s the connection to Trump?
Larry: Practically none. Gold’s rise was already under way before the election. And despite last week’s intermediate decline, it’s bound to continue after. Overall, my forecast for much higher gold prices is unchanged.
Martin: Your readers take your gold forecasts very seriously. They know you don’t have an ax to grind for gold. They also know you were probably the only one who correctly forecast gold’s earlier drop.
But suppose Trump starts doing the things he’s promised, such as boosting the economy and attacking the national debt. Won’t investors see progress in those areas as a negative for contra-assets like gold?
Larry: No. It’s hard to imagine any administration or any scenario in which there is “significant progress in attacking the national debt.” Even if there were, gold is going to benefit from a tsunami of flight capital, driven especially by the rising war cycle — civil wars, economic wars, cyber wars, and international wars.
Martin: I have to assume one of your forecasts is about oil. I say that because exactly one month ago, on October 14, you warned “the OPEC production cut is doomed” and published this forecast chart with the headline “kiss oil good-bye”:
Larry: Yes, let’s call that forecast #3. In the weeks that followed, crude oil prices promptly plunged 14%, and then, just ten days ago, I followed up with this chart showing massive U.S. stocks of crude oil:
This is just one of the factors capping oil rallies and driving them lower. In addition, the U.S. oil rig count recently hit an 8-month high at 432.
And never forget: All this puts the U.S. in the catbird seat — the swing producer that can derail any OPEC agreement. Trump loves this kind of economic leverage. So you can be sure he will use it, as needed, to help keep oil prices low.
Martin: One week ago, we warned that, soon after the election, we would see street demonstrations plus a growing minority that’s motivated to take up arms via rebel groups, criminal youth gangs and more. (See Starting tomorrow: America’s Day of Rage).
Sure enough, street demonstrations erupted almost immediately after the election. Where do you think that trend is headed?
Larry: That’s my fourth forecast. But let me restate the obvious: Trump’s election isn’t the cause. The cause is the social and political divide that, as I warned long ago, was widening before Trump jumped into politics. The only thing that’s changed — for the moment — is the question of which side of that divide is more actively expressing their anger.
No matter what, brace yourself for more civil unrest. But always remember that the unrest and turmoil overseas has been — and will continue to be — far worse. That’s important. Because it’s what’s driving massive amounts of flight capital to U.S. stocks and gold.
Martin: But not bonds.
Larry: No, not bonds, because they’re so grossly overpriced and so much a part of the great sovereign debt bubble.
Stay away from bonds. Stick with select stocks and gold-related investments. Right now, I’m continuing to buy gold miners, both junior and senior. They’ve risen sharply since I gave the signal to start buying. And after a temporary post-election dip, they’re going a lot higher.
Larry: One last word, if I may.
Larry: As you’ve seen, most of this is no longer just about forecasting the future. Most of it is already starting to happen. The sovereign debt crisis. Gold. Gold miners. Oil. Everything we discussed today, plus a lot more we didn’t talk about. That’s why I’ve created a special website for investors who want to cash in on this. And that’s why everyone must be aware that today’s the last day to do so.
Martin: Thanks, Larry. Keep up the good work!